By Aaron Champagne, CEO, Acre
Open your phone tonight and pick a home you’ve walked past recently. A colonial in Greenwich, a loft in SoHo, a brownstone in Park Slope. Answer one question: does it sell over list price, or under?
You probably have an answer. Maybe you’ve watched the block for years. Maybe you know the listing agent. Maybe the renovation feels overpriced, or the house is headed for a bidding war. Whatever the reason, you have a view, and there hasn’t been anywhere to put it.
That’s what we’re building Acre to fix.
The asset class without a price
Every other major asset class has a live price. Stocks, bonds, commodities, FX, even crypto. Open an app, look at a chart, take a position.
Housing is the exception. The single largest asset class on earth, $45 trillion in the U.S. alone, and pricing for it crawls. List prices drift around the real number. Comps lag the market by months. AVMs like Zillow’s Zestimate estimate yesterday. Closing prices are the truth but they show up after the fact.
There is no live forward price for the home you live in, or the neighborhood you watch.
$45 trillion of lender, REIT, and homeowner exposure runs on numbers built for a slower era. Mortgage originators price against lagging indexes. Insurers underwrite without market-implied valuations. Homeowners hold the largest position of their financial life and have no real way to manage it.
The audience is already here
221 million Americans visit Zillow every month, that’s more than TikTok or ESPN. Most of them aren’t shopping. They’re watching: checking what just listed up the street, comparing their block to the next neighborhood over, second-guessing the asking price on a place they have no intention of buying.
People have real views about their local housing market. Most of them are right about some piece of it. Until now, the only way to act on any of that was to buy a house, and 80%+ of those 221 million Americans aren’t going to do that.
That’s the gap Acre fills.
Acre, the platform
Acre is one product. Two ways to use it, both anchored to a place.
One is free. A TikTok-paced feed of real listings where you predict whether each home sells over or under list. Predictions earn accuracy and neighborhood reputation. Crowd consensus forms on every listing in real time.
The other is the bigger idea. Real money, area-level, continuously priced. You put money behind a view on how a neighborhood, ZIP, or metro moves over 30, 90, or 365 days. Settlement runs against published housing indexes (Case-Shiller at the metro level, Zillow ZHVI at the area level). Pricing moves continuously as the market updates. No counterparties. Entry starts at $1.
Underneath sits the Aggregation layer, which turns millions of consumer predictions into a forward price for every area in coverage. Predictions roll up to ZIP, neighborhood, and metro signals, weighted by user accuracy and recency. That price powers the paid side, and on its own it is a new institutional data layer for housing.
Homes create engagement. Engagement creates data. Data creates a market.
What it feels like
You open Acre and scroll. Each card is a real listing in one of the launch markets. You tap UNDER or OVER. You watch the crowd read shift as more users weigh in. You tap into a 60-second walkthrough from the listing agent. Over a few weeks you have a track record: accuracy on Greenwich colonials, a streak in SoHo, a rank in your own zip code.
When a home sells, the prediction resolves. Win or miss, on to the next.
Reputation compounds. The user who becomes a top 10% predictor in Park Slope carries that conviction into the paid side, where the same view can be backed with real money.
Taking a position is straightforward. Pick an area. Pick a horizon. Pick a price band. The AMM continuously prices each band. Take a position. The market clears against the index at settlement. Tighter bands pay more. Outside the range expires at zero.
We are starting at the area and city level because that is where Zillow’s ZHVI and Case-Shiller publish indexes reliable enough to settle markets against. Individual home trading is intentionally out of scope at launch. Houses live on the free side where they build the data. Neighborhoods and metros live on the paid side where institutions and serious users put money behind their views.
Why agents matter
The most interesting development in the early beta has been the role agents are starting to play.
A listing isn’t a static page anymore. It is a live market. Users predict on it, crowd consensus forms on it, and the listing agent gets signal back: how many people called over versus under, where the crowd is sitting against list price, how that signal moves day over day on their specific home.
Agents in the launch markets can feature listings in the consumer feed, upload short walkthrough videos, and use the engagement signal in conversations with their sellers. None of that exists today. It’s a new distribution channel for residential real estate, built around participation instead of passive inventory.
For institutions
Two reasons institutions care about Acre.
The first is data. Every REIT analyst, mortgage originator, and AVM operator works with housing numbers that arrive weeks or months after the market actually moved. Acre publishes a live forward price for every area in coverage, built from millions of consumer predictions and refreshed continuously. It is the data layer the industry has needed for years.
The second is hedging. Lenders, servicers, and landlords carry housing exposure on their balance sheets with no clean way to offset it. Acre gives them a direct instrument: contracts on neighborhoods and metros, settled against published indexes, sized to their book.
Why now
Three things have changed.
Prediction-market infrastructure runs at scale. Retail participation in prediction markets is now mainstream behavior.
Property-level data is finally clean. 135 million U.S. homes carry daily pricing signals consistent enough to settle markets against.
The audience is already paying attention. 221 million people watch housing every month with no consumer product attached.
A few years ago none of this was true. Now it is.
What is live today
The Acre beta is live in NYC, Westchester County, and Fairfield County. Users are making free predictions on real listings, building track records, watching crowd consensus form in real time, and seeing homes resolve when they close.
Real-money trading opens this fall. Beta users active from Day 1 get first access, and their prediction track records carry over.
Want in? Email ac@anagram.xyz for beta access. We’re capping the beta cohort, so this is a limited window.
The long view
The largest asset class in the world should have a live market price. Stocks have one. Bonds have one. Commodities, currencies, and crypto all have one. There is no structural reason housing has been the exception.
The world we are building toward is one where homeowners actively manage their largest financial position, investors trade neighborhoods the way they trade equities, every mortgage runs on a live forward price, and every American with an opinion on housing has a place to put it.
If that future arrives, Acre is the live market layer for it.
The team
Two founders are in place.
Aaron Champagne (Founder & CEO). Previously VP of New Ventures at FanDuel, where I led the formation of the FanDuel / CME joint venture and built FanDuel Predicts. A decade building consumer prediction products between sports betting and capital markets.
Morgan Abel (Founding Engineer). Joined from Meta after five years building consumer and ads products at Instagram, including one of the fastest 0-to-$1B products in Instagram Ads history. Before Meta, three years at Amazon.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
The information in this article has been prepared by Anagram Ltd. (“Anagram”) for educational and informational purposes only. Acre and Acre Markets will be offered by a separate legal entity distinct from Anagram. Under no circumstances should this, or any post on this website, be construed as solicitation for investment in Anagram, its affiliates, or any projects named herein or otherwise. The contents herein, and content available on any associated distribution platforms, including Anagram online social media accounts, should not be construed as or relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other advice.
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This article contains “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially and adversely from those reflected or contemplated in the forward-looking statements.
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